Copenhagen

As I'm sure most of you have heard; there has been an International Scientific Congress on Climate Change this week in Copenhagen (10 – 12 March). The main aim of the congress was to provide a synthesis of existing and emerging scientific knowledge necessary in order to make intelligent societal decisions concerning application of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change. There was heavy emphasis on influencing policy.

The conference, which was attended by 2500 delegates from 80 countries, has produced a set of six preliminary messages, which have been handed to the Danish Prime Minister Mr. Anders Fogh Rasmussen ahead of the COP 15 meeting in December. I've reproduced these messages in full below:

Key Message 1: Climatic Trends
Recent observations confirm that, given high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realised. For many key parameters, the climate system is already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which our society and economy have developed and thrived. These parameters include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, ocean and ice sheet dynamics, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.

Key Message 2: Social disruption
The research community is providing much more information to support discussions on 'dangerous climate change'. Recent observations show that societies are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2 Celsius will be very difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and will increase the level of climate disruption through the rest of the century.

Key Message 3: Long-Term Strategy
Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid 'dangerous climate change' regardless of how it is defined. Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of crossing tipping points and make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult. Delay in initiating effective mitigation actions increases significantly the long-term social and economic costs of both adaptation and mitigation.

Key Message 4 - Equity Dimensions
Climate change is having, and will have, strongly differential effects on people within and between countries and regions, on this generation and future generations, and on human societies and the natural world. An effective, well-funded adaptation safety net is required for those people least capable of coping with climate change impacts, and a common but differentiated mitigation strategy is needed to protect the poor and most vulnerable.

Key Message 5: Inaction is Inexcusable
There is no excuse for inaction. We already have many tools and approaches - economic, technological, behavioural, management - to deal effectively with the climate change challenge. But they must be vigorously and widely implemented to achieve the societal transformation required to decarbonise economies. A wide range of benefits will flow from a concerted effort to alter our energy economy now, including sustainable energy job growth, reductions in the health and economic costs of climate change, and the restoration of ecosystems and revitalisation of ecosystem services.

Key Message 6: Meeting the Challenge
To achieve the societal transformation required to meet the climate change challenge, we must overcome a number of significant constraints and seize critical opportunities. These include reducing inertia in social and economic systems; building on a growing public desire for governments to act on climate change; removing implicit and explicit subsidies; reducing the influence of vested interests that increase emissions and reduce resilience; enabling the shifts from ineffective governance and weak institutions to innovative leadership in government, the private sector and civil society; and engaging society in the transition to norms and practices that foster sustainability.

Many of you will have noticed there have been a number of stories in the media relating to the congress. Here are a few snippets I've picked out.

One that caught my eye immediately was the headline 'Top scientist: don't trust politicians on climate change'. In essence, John Ashton told scientists that "the truth could be lost to political expediency or mischief and urged scientists to couch their conclusions in terms that could not be misunderstood or go unheard." And I thought I was cynical!

The Hadley Centre have suggested that even with drastic CO2 cuts there is only a 50:50 chance of restricting global temperature rise to 2 Celsius in 2100. This, 'best case' scenario would require emissions to peak in 2015 and decrease at 3% per year thereafter. For every ten year delay the additional temperature rise will be 0.5 Cesius.

Renewable power could account for up to 40% of global electricity demand by 2050 but only if there adequate financial and political support.

We should dump the "inefficient and ineffective" Kyoto protocol and replace it with a global carbon tax according to leading economist William Nordhaus.

And finally, according to Terry Barker, "combating climate change may not be a question of who will carry the burden but could instead be a rush for the benefits".